China's Foreign Trade Transformation behind the expansion of imports

Recently, an international authority estimated that China's total domestic consumption will surpass that of the United States for the first time in 2018. This means that after 2018, the larger global market will no longer be the United States but China. Regardless of whether this forecast is accurate or not, the potential market size of China is three to four times that of the United States, and it is constantly changing from potential to reality, which is a foreseeable future. " This statement by Chinese Foreign Minister Yi in his speech at the China-Latin America Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum and the opening ceremony of the China Latin America Entrepreneur Council has attracted the attention of many people in the industry.

Yi also said: "with the passage of time, fundamental changes will take place in China's trade structure with the United States and other countries sooner or later. Now when visiting the United States, especially places in the United States, state governors and entrepreneurs are not concerned about what China has exported to them, but what they can export to China. It will be an irresistible trend to be concerned about and willing to enter the Chinese market more. In the future, many countries, including the United States, are likely to export more to China than they import from China, and the trade structure between China and foreign countries will also be reversed, possibly because China will face a deficit. "

"in fact, the Chinese government's view of China's trade status and foreign trade has changed, which is not what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on the previous occasion." Zhong Feiteng, director of the Research Office of Great Power Relations at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with China Trade Daily that the new formulation in Yi's speech is that China will become the world's largest consumer market in 2018.

Zhong Feiteng said that there is a thread to follow in this change. As early as April 7, 2013, the chairman mentioned in his keynote speech at the annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia that in the next five years, China will import about US $10 trillion worth of goods, and its outbound investment will reach US $500 billion. Outbound tourism is likely to exceed 400 million. "from President Xi's reference to import data, outbound investment data and outbound travel data, to China's decision to host China International Import Expo in November 2018, we can clearly see some new trends." Zhong Feiteng said.

In the past many years, no country has surpassed the United States as the world's largest consumer market, and Japan has not surpassed it that year. In Zhong Feiteng's view, one of the reasons why the United States can gain an international voice is that the United States has a huge consumer market. "We used to say, 'China's contribution to world economic growth is 30%,' which is rather abstract. If China becomes a larger global consumer market and a larger import market, then the contribution of China's economic growth to the world economy will become visible and palpable, and the world will see China's real contribution more clearly in the future. This is of great significance to a new understanding of the relationship between China and the world. "

Zhong Feiteng believes that this change in foreign trade will also promote domestic supply-side structural reform. Because increasing the scale of external imports can stimulate domestic manufacturers to improve product quality. In an era when consumers are becoming more and more picky and demanding more and more on the quality of their products, such a stimulus is necessary.

Since the reform and opening up, China has maintained a large-scale trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves for a long time. With the increase in imports and the change of trade deficit, China's balance of payments structure is also facing new adjustments. "at that time, China's economy was small, so it was necessary to retain a lot of foreign exchange reserves. But as China's economy gets bigger and bigger, it is open to question whether it still needs so much foreign exchange reserves. I used to buy a lot of US Treasuries, but the effect was not good. " Zhong Feiteng said: from a systematic point of view, expanding the scale of imports and bundling the economies of more countries can weaken the hegemony of the US dollar, expand imports will also expand the foreign use of RMB, and also play a supporting role in the internationalization of RMB.

Generally speaking, the above changes are related to the progress of China's foreign trade thinking framework and opening strategy. Zhong Feiteng said, for example, that some policies to encourage exports should be appropriately adjusted. In the past, processing and manufacturing attracted more attention, but now we should pay more attention to the environment, health, and health, and increase investment in these areas; when the manufacturing industry is upgrading and the economy has entered the stage of high-quality development, it is necessary to readjust the foreign trade strategy in accordance with the new social principal contradictions pointed out in the report of the 19th CPC National Congress.